Lucky 13

Reeling from a sharp fall in GDP  to a free falling rupee to contraction in industrial output to fanning inflation, 2013 is surely going to be a challenging year for our macro economic managers as they sail from peak to troughs. The economic Calendar holds much promise for a swift turnaround in the Indian Business Climate.

January :
The Central Bank RBI has so far stayed firm despite huge pressure from the industry to slash interest rates to fuel growth. Amid signs of cooling prices, all eyes will be on Subbarao , Governor RBI to see what relief does he offer to India Inc as obliquely hinted by him in the October 30, 2012 mid quarter policy review.

February :
Finmin PC will present UPA’s last budget 2013-14 before they go for  Elections in 2014. On the brink of reforms, he’ll have to deal with challenging issues from fueling growth, reining subsidies, sprinkling populism to boost govt’s sagging political stock , bringing in Tax Reforms  (GST and DTC), allowing FDI in pensions..PC will be keenly watched by the industry captains and economists .

March :
RBI will come out with its mid quarter monetary policy which will create ripples in the stock markets as the sentiments of the Industry would be of the view to a further slash in interest rates. It will present RBI’s assessment of the Indian Economy.

April :
Indian banks will move to an effective , efficient and secure payment settlement system in which the cheques embedded with new features will only be accepted. So even though if you have loads of unused leaves, you will need to replace them.

May :
The official GDP numbers for 2012-13 will be released confirming signs of a crippling slowdown primarily due to a squeeze in the interest rates and counter effect on the investor sentiments.

June :
It marks the end of the deadline issued by SEBI for the companies to ensure a minimum public shareholding of 25 % in listed companies. Estimated to impact 200 companies, the mandate aims to raise a whopping 30,000 crore rupees through stake sales in a bid to comply with the regulations.

 

July :
It will decide the fate of the govt’s food guarantee programme. If the rain god plays spoilsport, it could be detrimental for the crops like paddy, oil seeds, sugarcane, cotton and pulses.

August :
Reflecting govt’s keenness to shrug off the dented policy paralysis , we can expect the parliaments monsoon session to be high on the reforms agenda on key areas.

September :
The powerful honchos of the world’s 20 richest nations representing around 90 % of the world’s income- G 20 will brainstorm at St. Peters burg  Russia for over 2 days on solutions to the problems afflicting the world economy.

October :
The govt. will announce its second quarter hand half-yearly results of growth in the industrial output which represents 17 % of India’s GDP.

November :
The festive season beginning with the auspicious Dhanteras to Diwali traditionally creates a surge in sales of consumer goods.Hope the festive season cheers up India Inc.

 

December :
A month that  levels the benchmark Sensex will scale by the end of 2013. Post a flood of reforms and positive sentiment created by the RBI’s rate cuts, India can expect a flood of FDI and FII.
Hope that 2013 lights up the growth momentum beyond 6%. The burden of expectations from the UPA is heavy. Only a strong spine of will can bring India back on its growth story !!
Wishing everybody especially our Macro Managers good luck this New Year 2013 !
References : The Hindustan Times